[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. IT IS LOCATED OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE YET. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
SATURDAY. EVERYONE WHO IS INTERESTED IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 17N20W TO 12N21W...
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 21W/22W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 6N27W 10N23W 13N21W 15N18W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 20N45W TO 16N47W...
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 47W. IT IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. ANY DEVELOPMENT IN ORDER
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE SYSTEM'S WESTWARD MOVEMENT.

...THE ITCZ...
14N17W 9N23W 8N30W 12N47W 9N50W 9N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N80W INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TOWARD THE
UPPER/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N FROM FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM EAST TO
WEST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WESTWARD
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...NOW COVERING
PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS AND WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO. THE PRECIPITATION EXTENDS AS FAR AS 16N SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N79W IN COASTAL CUBA ON
THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE TO CENTRAL INTERIOR HONDURAS...TO THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO...
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO 21N103W. MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DIMINISHED AND/OR
DISAPPEARED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN BELIZE...THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST FROM 22N TO 25N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NOTEWORTHY FEATURE HERE IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N38W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N52W TO 19N56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
33N37W 31N43W 29N49W 23N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
33N46W TO 29N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N86W.

$$
MT


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