[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS NOW CENTERED
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THIS FEATURE
DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL AS THE TURK AND CAICOS...SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N19W 10N21W AND ALONG
21W SOUTHWARD. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 10N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N45W
17N48W...WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N48W 12N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W.
ANY DEVELOPMENT IN ORDER TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE SYSTEM'S WESTWARD
MOVEMENT.

...THE ITCZ...
14N17W 9N23W 8N30W 12N45W 9N50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
20W AND 23W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 24W...AND FROM 9N TO
11N BETWEEN 32W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N80W INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TOWARD
THE UPPER/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 31N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N81W AT THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST TO 26N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM EAST TO WEST.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MEXICO
ARE NEAR 24N100W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO EAST TEXAS. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
17N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W...COVERING THE BRITISH AND U.S.A.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR PRECIPITATION ALSO IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 21N64.5W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN A FEW CELLS ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE BIGGER MASS OF PRECIPITATION FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND
71W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 22N78W IN COASTAL CUBA ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE TO
CENTRAL INTERIOR HONDURAS...TO 17N93W IN MEXICO AT THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
INTERIOR MEXICO TO 19N102W. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CLUSTERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 18N97W
AND TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 20N105W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NOTEWORTHY FEATURE HERE IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N38W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N51W TO 21N57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
33N37W 28N46W 26N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO
28N62W 25N73W BEYOND SOUTH FLORIDA.

$$
MT


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