[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
22N60W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N61W TO 8N60W MOVING WNW
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 58W-62W. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 18N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING
W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ACROSS WRN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 87W-91W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N22W 14N34W 13N40W 10N44W
11N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 22W-27W AND LIKELY WEST OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 32W-38W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN GEORGIA TO SRN LOUISIANA
INTO SE TEXAS PARALLELING THE NRN GULF COAST. A 1009 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR COLUMBUS GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 26N-30N E OF 92W TO
INLAND ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER NRN MEXICO GIVING THE
GULF NE UPPER FLOW N OF 26N AND E UPPER FLOW S OF 26N. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SE GULF ANCHORED ON A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE
WRN GULF W OF 88W. LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE E GULF E OF
88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH E-NE UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER ERN CUBA
EXTENDING TROUGHING SW TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. UPPER
RIDGING IS ALONG NRN SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN
S OF 14N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS THU WHILE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO BY EARLY FRI.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR W
ATLC WITH A 996 MB SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N81W ACROSS SRN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS 120 NM E OF THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
32N74W TO NEAR 29N80W. AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN CUBA COVERS THE AREA
S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-80W. THIS UPPER LOW EXHIBITS A MODERATELY
DRY AIR MASS AND IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A COUPLE OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS
ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC WITH THE FIRST EAST OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W TO A SECOND NEAR 30N36W. THESE
UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR...THUS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN
ATLC E OF 40W. A THIRD UPPER LOW NEAR 29N48W IS ADVECTING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
42W-50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N38W AND EXTENDS SW TO E OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS.

$$
HUFFMAN




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