[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
22N59W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N60W TO 8N59W MOVING WNW
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL
NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 57W-61W. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 88W S OF 18N MOVING W
15-20 KT. MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS NW NICARAGUA...WRN HONDURAS...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 13N26W 13N38W 11N41W
9N45W 12N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 19W-26W AND LIKELY WEST OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 33W-37W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-46W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N48W TO
9N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1002 MB LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN
THE W ATLC ACROSS SRN GEORGIA TO SRN LOUISIANA INTO E TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM
26N-29N E OF 88W TO INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED
OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS GIVING THE GULF NE UPPER FLOW N
OF 25N AND E UPPER FLOW S OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS WNW TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
PROVIDING RETURN FLOW CONSISTING OF MODERATE/ STRONG S TO SW
WINDS ACROSS THE E GULF AND LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER ERN
CUBA EXTENDING TROUGHING SW TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG NRN SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE SOUTH
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF
SRN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
74W-81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 64W-66W AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR W
ATLC WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 33N78W WSW ACROSS SRN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 90 TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONT ALONG A
LINE FROM 32N76W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN CUBA COVERS THE AREA S OF
25N BETWEEN 60W-80W. THIS UPPER LOW IS KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY
CLEAR ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC WITH THE FIRST EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W
TO A SECOND NEAR 30N35W. THESE UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC E OF 40W. A THIRD UPPER
LOW NEAR 29N49W IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THAT BROKE AWAY FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 44W-48W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N38W AND
EXTENDS SW TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.

$$
HUFFMAN


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