[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE
EXTENDS FROM 21N57W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N59W TO 9N60W. THE
WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION STILL EXISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N38W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG
85W/86W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MID LEVEL ROTATION IS
OBSERVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE
IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY INLAND FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN
83W-86W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 9N20W 14N30W 9N41W 12N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-23W AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
16W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 46W-50W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 53W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 27N. A 1016 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. 15 KT SLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N100W
PRODUCING N TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N.
EXPECT CONTINUED FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE
N GULF STATES N OF 26N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE NRN
COLOMBIAN COAST. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E
CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
INLAND OVER HAITI FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 62W-86W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S AMERICA AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N39W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N AND W OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N47W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E NEAR 30N33W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N30W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N AND W OF
75W.

$$
FORMOSA



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