[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
22N54W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N56W TO 11N57W MOVING WNW
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
SURROUNDS TO THE LOW FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 54W-58W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HAS
DECREASED IT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A 1012 MB
LOW IS JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N35W FORMING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 31W-36W AND FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 37W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W S OF 18N MOVING W
15-20 KT. MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 9N20W 15N30W 9N39W 13N53W.
ITCZ AXIS IS DISTORTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
17W-22W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 45W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE
FROM 6N37W TO 8N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING S OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING
OVER THE SE U.S. WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
1010 MB LOW OVER E ALABAMA ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA INTO E
TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS
FROM 27N-30N W OF 90W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE TEXAS COAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
FROM OVER FLORIDA TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF
TEXAS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF E TO SE UPPER FLOW. THE SURFACE
RIDGE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS COVERING THE FAR E
GULF. THIS IS PRODUCING RETURN FLOW CONSISTING OF MODERATE/
STRONG S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE E GULF AND LIGHT/MODERATE WINDS
OVER THE W GULF. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW GULF
WITH UPPER NE FLOW. AN UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE N COAST OF HAITI
COVERING THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG N COAST OF
COLOMBIA COVERING THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN THE
ABC ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 70W-73W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO 13N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 60W-65W PRECEDING THE TROPICAL
WAVE/LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN HAS CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
NE OVER THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N73W. AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE N
COAST OF HAITI COVERS THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-80W. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 26N BETWEEN 67W-77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 79W
TO INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. A SERIES OF BENIGN
UPPER LOWS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE FIRST
ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N14W TO A SECOND NEAR
29N33W TO A THIRD NEAR 30N50W. THESE UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF
THE REGION NEAR 36N38W AND EXTENDS TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS WEAKENING AS IT EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
WALLACE




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