[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 28W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY
AND THE MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMSS ALSO SUPPORT THE WAVE POSITION. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABOVE THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N30W MASKING THE
WAVE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 25N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V
CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W IS S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
MARKED WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BY BUOY DATA ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N57W MASKING THE
WAVE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 300 NM W OF
THE WAVE AXIS AND ARE ALREADY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS REVEALS THAT THE WAVE IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST WHICH COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR W CUBA AT
22N83W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
81W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 12N27W 8N30W 10N40W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 35W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 42W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N92W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA
TO LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 29N AND E OF 90W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 96W-99W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. CYCLONIC UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 90W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS OF
20-25 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ALSO CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC E OF 81W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER CUBA AT 22N83W.
CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GULF N OF 15N
BETWEEN 76W-91W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N72W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 25N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1021 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N42W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N68W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N74W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
21N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N24W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N30W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W TO BE
A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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