[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 850 MB SATELLITE
DERIVED VORTICITY AND THE MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMSS ALSO SUPPORT THE
WAVE POSITION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABOVE THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N28W MASKING THE WAVE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 25N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V
CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W IS S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
MARKED WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BY BUOY DATA ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N56W MASKING THE
WAVE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 300 NM W OF
THE WAVE AXIS AND ARE ALREADY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS REVEALS THAT THE WAVE IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST WHICH COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES MOVING INTO THE TURKS
AND CAICOS. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR W CUBA AT 21N83W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 81W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N27W 9N30W 12N41W 9N50W
9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 26W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N92W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N
FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N AND E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
80W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 95W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FURTHER S OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER N GULF
OF MEXICO N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA
NEAR 21N83W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF
25N AND E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ALSO CONFIRMS THE
PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N
ATLC E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
OVER CUBA AT 21N83W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN GULF N OF 15N BETWEEN 76W-91W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N72W. EXPECT...THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 23N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N70W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N74W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
20N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N42W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N24W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W TO BE
A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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