[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N20W
MOVING SW AT 15 KT. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS BASED ON SURFACE AND
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INVERTED-V
PATTERN...AND THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A
NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MAINLY LOW/MID
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE ITCZ.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO N COLOMBIA
ALONG 77W MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL
ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS
NOTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N20W 13N35W 9N50W 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 23W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N
BETWEEN 38W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A RIDGE IS
OVER N FLORIDA N OF 25N AND E OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A
1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
79W-83W. FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ALSO
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER CUBA AT 22N81W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN GULF N OF 15N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N66W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N46W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
24N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N75W TO
22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 72W-80W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N56W. DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 50W-56W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N34W. EXPECT...THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W TO BE A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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