[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INVERTED-V
PATTERN...AND THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A
NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MAINLY LOW/MID
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55/56W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WHERE THE
WAVE MEETS THE ITCZ.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
E CUBA TO N COLOMBIA ALONG 74/75W MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT WHERE A GOOD
SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER HAITI FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N20W 13N34W 9N45W 9N62W.
A LOW/MID CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR
11N23W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
23W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 30W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 36W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N89W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 91W-95W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A RIDGE IS OVER N
FLORIDA N OF 25N AND E OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE
SE GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A
1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
75W-86W. FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ALSO
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER CUBA AT 22N81W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN GULF N OF 15N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N66W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N48W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N
FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N74W TO
23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 74W-80W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N56W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
19N34W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W TO BE A GOOD SOURCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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