[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AT 05/1800 UTC IS
INLAND IN TEXAS NEAR 30.0N 94.8 OR ABOUT 35 MILES/55 KM EAST
OF HOUSTON TEXAS. EDOUARD IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 13 KT.
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
999 MB. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS EDOUARD CONTINUES
MOVING FARTHER INLAND...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING GRADUALLY WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. PLEASE READ THE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND/OR
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN ONE CLUSTER WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N94W...AND
A SECOND CLUSTER IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N95W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28N65W 23N66W 16N67W 9N67W MOVING WEST
15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 20N.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A SMALL AREA WITHIN A 15 TO
30 NM RADIUS OF 22N61W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING BLOWN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM 27N TO
32N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF
16N EAST OF 70W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.
THE WAVE HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF A SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 10N23W 12N32W 10N40W 11N47W 10N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...AND WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 14N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. EDOUARD GRADUALLY IS MOVING INLAND MORE AND MORE. THE
AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT CURRENTLY COVERS EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS IS HOPING TO OVERCOME THE
LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS ALL OF TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE DRY AIR OVER
TEXAS ALSO COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS SOUTH
OF 25N WEST OF 94W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A COMPARATIVELY
SMALL-SIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ABOUT 450 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF T.S. EDOUARD IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE EASTERN PART
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ONLY A LIGHT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE TROUGH. EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN
BELIZE/GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME...LEAVING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 28N BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND 85W. THIS AREA IS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N65W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N70W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WEAKENING WITH TIME...
ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN
PASSAGE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SOUTH OF 16N EAST
OF 70W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. THE WAVE HAS
BROUGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N65W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N70W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS FROM 26N TO 27N
BETWEEN 64W AND 65W...AND FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 67W AND 68W.
A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS NEAR 18N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 25N30W 18N35W 13N39W.

$$

MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net