[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 88.5W AT 04/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 390 MILES...630 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES EDOUARD IS UNDERGOING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DUE TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND SERN CONUS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SW OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 87W-90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 15N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS IS A
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 24N MOVING W 20-25 KT.  A 1012
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 21N
MOVING W 20 KT. A WEAK INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF JAMAICA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
80W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N30W 12N42W 10N50W 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 17W-27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS NW OF EDOUARD OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR 36N98W MOVING SW. EXPECT...
EDOUARD TO MOVE W AND MAKE LANDFALL IN AROUND 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO BELIZE FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 82W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N85W. DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N65W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 76W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS N OF
20N E OF 40W. EXPECT...CONVECTION FROM THE SURFACE LOW AT 19N54W
TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA.

$$
FORMOSA




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