[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 26N89W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 86W-90W.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 15N WITH A 1010 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 20-25 KT. FAST MOVING
LOW CENTER THAT IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 24N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ANALYZED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL
ROTATION HAS PERSISTED WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
RE-DEVELOPING. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 21N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. EASTERLY SURGE WITH A WEAK INVERTED-V
CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 15N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN 71W-78W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W S OF 23N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N21W 11N36W 9N50W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N E OF 18W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N E OF 31W TO THE COAST OF W
AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS STILL THE 1011 MB LOW IN THE N
GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
PUSHING S OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED OFF THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 83W ACROSS S
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE WSW ATLC. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SQUALL LINE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA
APPROACHING THE NE GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 20N83W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N
ACROSS CUBA W OF 76W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N
ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 75W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 17N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SAME AREA ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 77W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 72W/73W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WHICH COULD USHER
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 26N W
OF 77W GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
23N-28N W OF 77W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES W OF THE MONA PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 62W ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. A
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N56W WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N29W...BOTH ARE RATHER
BENIGN FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG 32N37W THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH IN
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N67W THEN W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND
BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE ATLC FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
WALLACE



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