[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 26N89W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 16N WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 20-25 KT. FAST MOVING
LOW CENTER WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 24N WITH A 1012 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL ROTATION HAS PERSISTED ALTHOUGH LACKS ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 46W-52W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO THE CHANCES OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE DECREASING.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S OF 21N MOVING W
20 KT. WAVE IS MORE OF A STRONG EASTERLY SURGE LACKING THE
TYPICAL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 66W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W S OF 23N MOVING W
15-20 KT. UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS A CLEAR
INDICATION OF THE WAVE PASSAGE 2 DAYS AGO. WAVE IS BENEATH A
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 9N33W 8N37W 10N46W
7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 11W-16W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 17W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CONCERN TONIGHT FOR THE GULF IS THE 1012 MB LOW IN THE N
GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
N GULF ANCHORED OVER S TEXAS EXTENDING E ACROSS NE FLORIDA. AN
UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHILE AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE
GULF. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA E OF 82W INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER
TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 21N82W COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N
ACROSS CUBA W OF 75W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N
ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 74W-81W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND MOVING TOWARD
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF 17N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER PANAMA COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W
OF 73W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 71W. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WHICH
COULD USHER IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 26N W
OF 76W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND E
CUBA W OF 77W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER HISPANIOLA
AND THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 67W-77W. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. A
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N55W WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N29W...BOTH ARE RATHER
BENIGN FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG 32N35W ALONG 27N54W THEN W TO
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND NEAR
THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
WALLACE




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