[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 34W AND 35W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THE WAVE...CUTTING UP THE CLOUDS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 15 KT THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN
GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEXICO
COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...POSSIBLY WITH THE WAVE AND
POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE MEXICO CYCLONE.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 15N27W 10N36W 9N46W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND
14W...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N50W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 20N52W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 21N63W...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N78W IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...TO A SUBTLE CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE BELIZE
PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN WEAKENING. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MEXICO COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...POSSIBLY
WITH THE WAVE AND POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE MEXICO CYCLONE.
A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR
30N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE 27N50W 24N78W TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
24N78W-TO-NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-WESTERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W IN RESPONSE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N102W
IN MEXICO. MUCH OF THE MEXICO PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAS DIMINISHED. POSSIBLE SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF 98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N78W IN BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO A SUBTLE CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 20N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE WAVE...CUTTING UP THE CLOUDS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
PUERTO RICO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N54W TO 24N80W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N93W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES NEAR 34N38W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
ISOLATED CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 33N22W TO 23N30W TO 11N39W.

$$
MT



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