[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010620
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31N SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 18N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N GO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
WAVE...CUTTING UP THE CLOUDS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE AREA...
BUT MORE PROBABLY PRECIPITATION NOT SPECIFICALLY RELATED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
12N16W 15N23W 16N28W 10N33W 9N46W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AFRICA
COAST FROM 5N TO 14N...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N50W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 20N52W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 21N63W...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N78W IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...TO A SUBTLE CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE
WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND EASTERN
HONDURAS...AND JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST AND WEST OF GUATEMALA
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 30N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 27N50W 23N78W TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
23N78W-TO-NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-WESTERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W IN RESPONSE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
EAST CENTRAL TEXAS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N102W
IN MEXICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 99W...
SOUTH OF 26N99W 30N110W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N78W IN BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO A SUBTLE CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE WAVE...CUTTING UP THE CLOUDS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO 27N48W TO 26N76W TO
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N86W IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO, A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
CONTINUES NEAR 34N38W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ISOLATED CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 33N22W TO 23N30W TO 11N39W.

$$
MT




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