[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 15N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 18W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD NOTED FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 43W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 42W-49W....WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD TOPS GETTING SHEARED BY UPPER WSW FLOW S OF AN
UPPER TROUGH.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH THE ONLY
HINT OF CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 52W-57W. A
SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NEAR THIS REGION
FROM 9N-11 BETWEEN 54W-57W...WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION NOTED
ELSEWHERE NEAR THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THERE IS AN INVERTED V PATTERN NOW APPROACHING 80W...AND IT
APPEARS THIS WAVE MAY HAVE SPED UP A BIT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
REFLECTED ON THE 1800 UTC MAP. OVERALL CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED WITH A COUPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N22W 5N32W 10N44W 10N61W
9N62W. OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-37W....AND FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 59W-64W WHICH IS AFFECTING TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND
COASTAL VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND SW THROUGH COASTAL TEXAS/ERN
MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND RIDGING OVER
THE WEST AND CENTRAL GULF IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALONG WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG 19N93W 26N97W. THIS DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 90W-98W.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION IS
SPREADING THE HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE E TO 85W...WITH DRY MID TO
UPPER AIR PERSISTING OVER THE FAR ERN GULF. A SHORT WAVE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE NE GULF THROUGH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER NOTED IN THE GULF IS THE
FAR SE PORTION WHERE THE KEY WEST RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ADJACENT
GULF WATERS...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WITHIN THE
ELY FLOW SOUTH OF THE 1021MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SE US. THE
ELY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH THAT HAS BEEN N OF THE AREA
THE LAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED WITH THE LARGEST
READING AT BUOY 42002 SE OF TX...AT 7 FT AT 8 SEC. THIS WILL
ONLY SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A REINFORCING SFC
HIGH REBUILDS N OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN...THAT IS SHEARING THE HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE E/SE FROM THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FROM THE
COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH HISPANIOLA. A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN. OVERALL THE ERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND ATLC RIDGE NEAR 30N
MAINTAIN MODERATE ELY TRADES TODAY THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NRN
BAHAMAS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS REGION ALSO STILL DOMINATED
BY LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW AROUND A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SE
US. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE 1023MB ATLC
HIGH NEAR 30N44W IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE
FROM THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 21N73W 31N68W. ASSOCIATED PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN
65W-75W...OR BETWEEN THE ERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED. WHILE A NON-TROPICAL LOW
COULD FORM WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF
THIS AREA NEAR 28N63W...WITH ANOTHER NEAR 27N53W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 35W-60W.
W/SW SHEAR S OF THIS TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE
ERN ATLC AND W AFRICA. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE ERN ATLC DOMINATED
BY A 1031MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM W OF SW PORTUGAL...ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N28W 30N29W...THAT HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150NM OF THE AXIS.

$$
WILLIS




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