[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-24W AND 28W-33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIE ALONG THE AXIS W OF 40W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN-MOST
ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER N
MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...NEARLY ZONAL
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WIDE AREA OF RIDGING
WITH THREE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN IT IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF AND OVER FLORIDA.
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 15-20 KT ARE COMMON E OF 92W WITH LIGHTER
EASTERLIES W OF THERE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING ALONG THE
E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS PRODUCING THICK LOW
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG BANKED UP AGAINST THE
TOPOGRAPHY AND SPREADING OUT INTO THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W. THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
AND WILL BE OFF THE U.S. COASTLINE MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
EASTERLIES AND SE RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WARMING
THE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. UNTIL
THEN...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 10N56W WITH
ITS WIDE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. PERSISTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED OVER S AMERICA...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO THE SEA AND FLOWS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT AND IS CONTAINED
S OF 15N BETWEEN 50W-68W. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA TODAY THAN THERE WAS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROUGH AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A BROKEN LINE OF
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE MOST ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND AT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH OVER
HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SEA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES EXIST IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W WITH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE SFC TROUGH MAY LINGER TODAY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA...OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF
60W WITH A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN BETWEEN...NEARLY ZONAL
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT
THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM A 985 MB LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 38N64W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N52W
23N65W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
STRETCH A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWARD AND DISSIPATE BY
MID-WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC. A 1021 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W AND
A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N50W WITH SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING TO THE CANARY ISLANDS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ S OF 26N.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 978 MB GALE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC
AND CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N24W 28N32W. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LIES 200-250 NM AHEAD OF THIS ONE AND ALSO CLIPS THE AREA
ALONG 32N16W 29N21W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND
FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 15W-55W INFLUENCED BY AN 80-100 KT UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY JET AND ENHANCED BY THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES.


$$
CANGIALOSI


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net