[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-34W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-1N FROM 45W
WESTWARD TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN-MOST
ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER N
MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...NEARLY ZONAL
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE W
OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF AND OVER FLORIDA. NORTHERLY WINDS FROM
15-20 KT ARE COMMON E OF 93W WITH LIGHTER EASTERLIES W OF THERE.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS PRODUCING THICK LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND FOG BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY AND SPREADING OUT INTO
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 94W. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. COASTLINE
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING EASTERLIES AND SE RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF. UNTIL THEN...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 10N57W WITH ITS
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. PERSISTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED OVER S AMERICA...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO THE SEA AND FLOWS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT AND IS CONTAINED
S OF 15N BETWEEN 50W-68W. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A BROKEN LINE OF MULTILAYER
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. THE MOST ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SEA.
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES EXIST IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
WITH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STIFF
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
APPEARS TO ALREADY BE DISSIPATING IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE SEA TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF
60W WITH A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN BETWEEN...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE...
A QUICK MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM A 987 MB LOW
PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N65W
AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N55W 26N63W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING QUICKLY EWARD AND DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. A 1021 MB
SFC HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 23N44W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ S OF 26N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 976 MB GALE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC AND CLIPS THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N25W 27N32W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTEND FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 15W-57W INFLUENCED BY AN
80-100 KT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET AND ENHANCED BY THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.


$$
CANGIALOSI


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