[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N26W THEN SHIFTS S OF
EQUATOR AT 36W TO S AMERICA AT 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE ITCZ E OF 22W THEN IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE 2N21W 3N344W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE IS A MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
SEVERAL DAYS AGO.  THE PLUME NOW CROSSES OLD MEXICO AND THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N105W
27N93W...THEN NARROWS AND IS MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
ENHANCED TSTMS NEAR 33N85W. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED SE OF LINE 28N83W 20N97W. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE OLD MEXICO AT 0300Z.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO A POSITION
FROM TAMPA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS ACCOMPANIED
BY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N80W WITH ITS
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING NW AND N CRESTING GENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 14N83W 15N72W 16N61W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED
NEAR 18N73W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SMALL BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NEAR 12N78W
THAT ORIGINATED FROM CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA MON AFTERNOON. A
FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS THAT FORMED FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA IS OBSERVED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC...
A MID-UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF
75W. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH
THE MAIN CYCLONE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A MEAN AXIS ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA AT 31N50W AND CONTINUING S TO A BASE NEAR 22N57W. THE UPPER
FLOW IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC BETWEEN 75W AND 40W. AT THE
SURFACE...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS LOSING IDENTITY ALONG 31N40W
20N63W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LIES ALONG
31N44W TO 22N70W WITH LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVERING THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT. YET ANOTHER COLD SURGE IS
ALONG 32N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W...BUT IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY A
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1017 MB AT 28N72W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 15N43W TO BEYOND 32N30W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N9W TO
A BASE AT 14N26W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER AFRICA AT 13N11E
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 5N20W AND IS ENHANCING THE
ITCZ E OF 20W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 210
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N50W 19N25W 23N10W. AT THE SURFACE...A
1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N30W.

$$
NELSON




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net