[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202305
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W TO THE EQ39W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 120 NM...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS. A NEWLY FORMED
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS FIRED FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 85W/86W. A PRONOUNCED
SUB-TROPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY JET WITH UPPER WINDS NEAR 90-100 KT
IS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE SE U.S.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA BUT WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF THIS MORNING
AND AS OF 2100 UTC...EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOUSTON TO THE TX/MX
BORDER ALONG 30N85W 26N97W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. MULTILAYER
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD 125 NM AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING INLAND
OVER THE SE U.S MOVING NEWARD. S/SSE SURFACE FLOW FROM 15-20 KT
AND VERY MILD WEATHER DOMINATES THE BASIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWARD AND WILL BE POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO S MEXICO NEAR 21N97W IN 24 HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WHILE MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLIES COVER MUCH OF THE BASIN.
DRY AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY W OF 75W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS ONLY ALLOWED SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS TO FORM ACROSS THE SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A W ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT AND ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL OROGRAPHY. MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADES FROM 15-25 KT ARE BLOWING E OF 80W WITH SE WINDS NEAR
15-25 KT W OF 80W. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC...
A MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A BROAD 981 MB LOW OVER NEWFOUNDLAND IS
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BAHAMAS AND
GREATER ANTILLES. THIS LOW HAS ALSO ENHANCED A STRONG 120-150 KT
NW/WNW JET N OF 30N W OF 40W. A SERIES OF LOWS AND FRONTS HAVE
DEVELOPED SEWARD OF THE BROAD LOW. TWO COLD FRONTS HAVE ENTERED
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG
32N47W 26N57W 23N70W. A BROKEN LINE OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD ABOUT 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
OTHER COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST ALONG
32N39W 26N47W 22N56W. A SIMILAR LINE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SECOND BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20W-40W N OF 20N. AT THE
SFC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N30W. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A SUB-TROPICAL JET
WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM 100-120 KT LIES INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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