[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N17W 4N30W 4N45W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 5N ACROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-14W AND S OF 5N FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
TO 6W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALONG COASTAL PLAINS FROM MOBIL AL TO HOUSTON
TX. THE FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NE GULF LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA SAT. 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NE GULF
NEAR 28N87W. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE DENSE FOG FROM  THIS MORNING THINNING
OUT SOME ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE SW GULF FROM THE E PACIFIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW DOMINATES PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUES TO HAVE A FIRM HOLD OF THE ENTIRE AREA.
ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED FROM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST OF COAST RICA AND PANAMA N OF THE CANAL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
W ATLC UNDER ZONAL WLY FLOW W OF 60W..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE E COAST  OF THE UNITED STATES N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF 90 KT
JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA ACROSS THE ATLC TO 32N60W. A
WEAKENING 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N61W. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 47W-56W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N40W TO
25N55W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N38W N TO BEYOND 32N34W.
WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
REMAINS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
32N17W TO 25N21W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N14W
JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N21W. THE AFRICAN DUST REMAINS
OVER E ATLC ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAS BEEN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THINNING DUST COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ
AND S OF A LINE FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N17W TO 16N51W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA
NEAR 8N13W ALONG 7N30W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W.

$$
DGS

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