[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N17W 4N30W 4N46W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 5N ACROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-14W AND FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-7W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 43W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NW GULF REMAINING
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STILL INLAND OVER LOUISIANA/TEXAS. WEAK 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
OVER SW GEORGIA. THE GULF IS UNDER UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY CLIPPING THE N GULF AND WILL EXIT THE
GULF LATE IN THE DAY ON SAT. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE S
FROM OVER THE US INTO THE GULF SAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC BY SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER SW FLOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W WITH UPPER
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HAVE A FIRM HOLD OF THE ENTIRE AREA.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM OVER SOUTH
AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BUT
NOT MAKING IT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO THIN
DUE TO THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH ONLY ARUBA
REPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA NE TO 31N67W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING
1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N71W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N FROM 43W-60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N46W TO 25N58W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N71W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N.
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 19N38W
N TO BEYOND 32N34W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 26N46W WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE COVERING THE THE ATLC E OF
THE FRONT TO 30W. A VERY WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N17W TO 20N21W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N14W JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
26N24W. THE DENSE AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER E ATLC ALTHOUGH IT
IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THINNING DUST COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF A LINE FROM
THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 22N17W TO 16N51W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 6N10W ALONG
7N30W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W ENHANCING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE ITCZ ESPECIALLY OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE MOST OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net