[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N17W 3N27W 2N41W 152W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE EQUATOR E OF 13W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND FROM THE AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 31W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES CONTINUES
TO SKIRT THE NW GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...S MISSISSIPPI...AND SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W SSW INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W THEN RETURNING
NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
E OF THE FRONT INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 85W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W NE TO ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC. A 1024 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA IS EXTENDING A
RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND BE
IN THE W ATLC DURING THE DAY WED. IN THE MEANTIME...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING BEGINNING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE SW GULF IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN UPPER NE
FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO 13N77W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE S CARIBBEAN UPPER WESTERLY FLOW S OF
A LINE FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 11N83W ALONG 14N70W TO THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADES AND IS MOVING ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 67W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DIP ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN SW GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 73W IMPINGING ON THE CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW IN THE SW ATLC NEAR 21N66W CAUSING A TROUGH AXIS TO EXTEND
FURTHER INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW/TROUGH COVERS THE AREA S OF
31N TO THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W-73W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE SAME AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N61W WITH A
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 40W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E
GULF OF MEXICO. AN LOW/MID TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 18N FROM 21W-40W WITH THE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING S TO 26N32W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N25W TO 24N30W. THE AIR
SURROUNDING THIS FRONT IS VERY DRY AT ALL LEVELS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A VERY BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER-RUNNING THE
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR
8N35W COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 24N...THE ENTIRE TROPICAL
ATLC...AND THE S CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO
COVERS THE E ATLC LEAVING THE ITCZ AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WELL TO THE S. GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS
OVER THE FAR E ATLC WHERE THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING THE STRONG SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 20N E
OF 35W WITH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXPERIENCING LIMITED
VISIBILITY.

$$
WALLACE



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