[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140453
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 9N16W 3N26W 1N38W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA W OF 8W TO ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SKIRTING THE NW GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA 30N92W
S INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N97W THEN RETURNING NW ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MOVING INTO GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E DURING THE NIGHT. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W NE TO OVER FLORIDA AND THE
E COAST OF THE US. A WEAKENING 1023 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA IS
EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF INTO THE W ATLC DURING THE DAY WED. IN THE MEANTIME...
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE S
CARIBBEAN UPPER WESTERLY FLOW S OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W. THE UPPER HIGH IN
THE SW GULF IS GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN UPPER NE FLOW AND A
UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC DIPS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED WITH THE EASTERLY
TRADES AND IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS E OF 65W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL DIP ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN SW GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW
ATLC NEAR 21N65W COVERING THE AREA FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 50W-75W
INCLUDING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THE E BAHAMAS. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE SAME AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A PAIR OF WEAKENING 1023 MB HIGHS ARE  LOCATED S  AND
SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N65W AND 29N51W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE
AREA W OF 40W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM
26W-45W WITH THE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR
32N28W EXTENDING S TO 26N32W THEN W TO 24N38W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N27W ALONG 25N30W TO 21N38W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS VERY
DRY AT ALL LEVELS. A VERY BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
TROPICS NEAR 7N37W COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 21N...THE ENTIRE
TROPICAL ATLC...AND THE S CARIBBEAN. N OF 21N E OF 26W ARE AN
UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS THE E ATLC LEAVING THE ITCZ AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL TO THE S. GENERALLY TRANQUIL
WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE FAR E ATLC WHERE THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OF MON SHOWS A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N AND AS FAR E AS 40W. THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR 35W WITH THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS EXPERIENCING LIMITED VISIBILITY.

$$
WALLACE


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