[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W EQ40W 2S45W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 11W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM 15-20 KT SLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE TO A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N63W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.  A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM WITH
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO N FLORIDA ALONG
21N105W 29N85W 28N80W.  EXPECT SIMILAR SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY
S OF 17N AND E OF 77W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
70W WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SKIES ARE VOID OF HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT
SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
PREDOMINATELY S OF 17N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N63W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 26N40W 18N50W.  A BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 90 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1033 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N15W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO W OF THE CANARY ISLAND NEAR 27N28W.
AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.  A NEW
OUTBURST OF DUST WITH LOWEST SURFACE VISIBILITIES ARE FROM
5N-15N E OF 33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 5N40W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-15N BETWEEN 20W-55W.

$$
FORMOSA


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