[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 5N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 34W...3S42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 3W AND 12W...AND FROM 3N TO 3S
BETWEEN 17W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL STATES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE NEXT CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH IS DEVELOPING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 11/0900 CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR IS FOUND FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 77W...SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS FLOW
HAS SPILLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
SOME POSSIBLY HAS COME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 37W/38W
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND 32N36W 18N50W SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N65W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FOUND TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE THEIR
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 25N BEYOND
32N. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 27N40W 18N50W. THE
ONLY GREAT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN FOR THE TRADEWIND
PRECIPITATION...EXISTS WITH THIS TROUGH AND FRONT...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 32N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A DISTINCT BAND OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N35W
27N40W 21N47W 17N60W 15N70W. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 20N42W 28N32W BEYOND 32N27W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM
A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED NEAR 26N28W. A
FAINT HINT OF SOME CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS NEAR THERE...AS IT IS
BEING OVERTAKEN BY FLOW WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE NEXT-APPROACHING DEEP LAYER
TROUGH.

$$
MT




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