[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 41.0N 70.5W AT 21/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 25 MILES SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING
NE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER COOLER WATER AND A MORE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO WEAKENING
SHOULD CONTINUE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE DAY OR SO.
BERYL LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND OVER THE E PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS WITH
THE OUTER RAINBANDS AS FAR N OS S MAINE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1010
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE ACTUAL WAVE LOCATION IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TO THE WEST. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO THE
DENSE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AGAIN NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION DUE TO THE DENSE
PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
MOVING BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE...BUT IS
CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 6N27W 8N43W 6N55W ACROSS N
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 13N-17N E
OF 18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
5N-13N BETWEEN 13W-23W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
23W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 26N88W WITH A SECOND WEAKER
UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND
CORPUS CHRISTI. BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXTENDS S TO THE N GULF COAST AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE S GULF S OF 23N ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IN THE FAR W ATLC AND OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N
E OF 85W. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING DRAWN
ACROSS S MEXICO PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 20N FROM 93W-97W. AT
THE SURFACE...RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND
ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
RELATIVELY SHOWER-FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 82W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA.
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF CUBA WITHIN
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 20N79.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG TRADEWINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC AND ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 28N78W.
THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
S OF 27N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-80W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA S OF 29N W OF
75W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED S OF BERYL NEAR 31N71W COVERING THE AREA N OF
28N BETWEEN 65W-78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N71W
TO 25N75W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
28N66W TO BEYOND 32N64W. THE AREA BETWEEN 45W-65W IS COVERED
WITH SEVERAL UPPER LOWS AND HIGHS BUT ARE RATHER BENIGN
FEATURES NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER AFRICA WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC COMBINED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE SAME AREA IS GIVING THE ATLC E OF 45W LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 26N
E OF 45W.

$$
WALLACE


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