[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 210242
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. DESPITE
BERYL'S RAGGED APPEARANCE... THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 54 KT FROM 850
MB AT 2314 UTC... WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 45 KT AT THE SURFACE
USING STANDARD REDUCTION FACTORS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM A DROPSONDE
VERY NEAR THAT LOCATION IN THE MAXIMUM WIND BAND ALSO SUPPORTED
SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT... A LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLD WATERS LESS THAN 22C AND GENERALLY
INCREASING SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A
DAY OR SO DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

BERYL IS MOVING 040/11...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  ON
THIS HEADING BERYL WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR NANTUCKET AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER IT DEPARTS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK SOLUTION AND
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  WIND RADII BEYOND 12
HOURS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
MOST OF THE WIND ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT
OF BERYL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0300Z 40.2N  71.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 41.9N  69.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 44.8N  64.3W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 47.5N  58.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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