[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KBOX 210127
HLSBOX
ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>008-210400-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
925 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...

...NEW INFORMATION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL STORM BERYL
IS BEING INFLUENCED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT APPEARS THAT IT IS
STILL RIGHT ON THE EXPECTED FORECAST TRACK.  SO FAR...THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST HOUR AT OBSERVATION PLATFORMS HAS BEEN A
GUST TO 33 KNOTS AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND.

AT 9 PM...THE HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF BERYL
WAS APPROACHING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND SHOULD ARRIVE
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY CAPE COD...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE
GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE FELT OVER NANTUCKET AS THE STORM TRACKS
VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS
TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE
COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED.  ALL
PREPARATIONS TO SECURE MOORINGS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT. BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT SEAS HAD ALREADY BUILT TO
10 TO 12 FEET FROM NANTUCKET SHOALS TO SOUTH OF MONTAUK.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY
4 TO 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
IN THE TORRENTIAL RAIN BAND THAT IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
BERYL.  THIS WILL BE APPROACHING NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 3 OR 4 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE LONGEST
DURATION OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE FELT ON NANTUCKET.
A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE ON NANTUCKET WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF DAYBREAK.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.
HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY EXPERIENCE A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FROM NEWPORT TO NEW BEDFORD AND WAREHAM.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED
TIDES.

AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT 918
PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT
826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH
TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS
EXPECTED.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH
COAST.  AT 9 PM...HIGHER SWELLS OF 10 TO 12 FT WERE REPORTED FROM
BUOYS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND.

THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH
COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST
BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.

LINGERING RIP CURRENTS MAY REQUIRE THAT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BE
EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST FOR FRIDAY.

...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE TORRENTIAL RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM
BERYL WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AREA
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN A FEW HOURS OVER THESE AREAS AS
WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN.  A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS
AND MOST OF RHODE ISLAND FROM PROVIDENCE SOUTHWARD.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 2 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BOSTON MA     19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER

HYANNIS MA    63 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
HYANNIS MA     6 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

NANTUCKET MA  79 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
NANTUCKET MA   8 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

PROVIDENCE RI 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 12 AM MIDNIGHT EDT.

ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS
/KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS.

$$
FIELD



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