[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KBOX 202139
HLSBOX
ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>008-210400-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
539 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO COLDER
WATERS...AND IT IS SHOWING A MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.  THE STRONGEST
REPORTED WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KNOTS AT THE BUOYS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND.

AT 5 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL RHODE ISLAND. HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WERE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE OCEAN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY CAPE COD...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.  THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE FELT OVER NANTUCKET AS THE
STORM TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...SOUTH
COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND.  THIS
STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS
TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE
COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. BOAT
OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE THAT
MOORINGS ARE SECURE.

SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 3 TO
4 AM FRIDAY MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10
PM...DIMINISHING AFTER 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING.  THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
THE LONGEST DURATION OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE FELT ON
NANTUCKET. A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE ON NANTUCKET AS
TROPICAL STORM BERYL APPROACHES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.
HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY EXPERIENCE A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FROM NEWPORT TO NEW BEDFORD AND WAREHAM.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED
TIDES.

AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT 918
PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT
826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH
TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS
EXPECTED.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH
COAST.  AT 5 PM...HIGHER SWELLS OF 10 TO 12 FT WERE REPORTED FROM
BUOYS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND.

THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH
COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST
BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.

...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL
COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.  FLOOD
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND MOST OF
RHODE ISLAND FROM PROVIDENCE SOUTHWARD.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 2 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BOSTON MA     19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER

HYANNIS MA    63 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
HYANNIS MA     6 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

NANTUCKET MA  79 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
NANTUCKET MA   8 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

PROVIDENCE RI 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 9 PM EDT.

ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS
/KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS.

$$

KJC



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