[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 202119
HLSOKX
ANZ330-350-353-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-212100-

TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
518 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO MONTAUK POINT INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON
NEW YORK AND NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE WATERS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. BUOY 44025 SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND REPORTED WIND
GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS AT 2 PM. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 12 FT SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND...WITH BEACH PATROLS REPORTING BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10
FEET AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAVE MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT
TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN.
THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO
MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT
JEFFERSON NEW YORK TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES SUFFOLK
COUNTY NEW YORK...AND MUCH OF COASTAL CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST...ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTAUK POINT.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...
BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF THE STORM VERY CLOSE TO MONTAUK POINT...AND BRING TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS TO A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE
BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. SINCE THE STORM COULD
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BOAT
OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ALREADY BE
PREPARED FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

SOUTHERLY SWELLS HAVE ALREADY BUILT TO 9 TO 12 FEET SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BUILD AT LEAST ANOTHER FOOT TO 10 TO 13 FT THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT BY 8 AM FRIDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THIS PLUS WAVE ACTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AT
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FT COULD ALSO CAUSE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND SOUND...AND IN THE BACK BAYS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO MONTAUK POINT...AROUND 11 PM
TONIGHT...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS
FORECAST...RAIN BANDS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER COULD STILL PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OVER THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN FORECAST...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH COULD IMPACT A PORTION
OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO
AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT. THIS WOULD CAUSE ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES INTO FRIDAY.

...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
HIGH SEAS FROM FROM BERYL ARE ALREADY PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES...WITH BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET. MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

MONTAUK POINT...38 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR
GREATER.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY BY 11 PM EDT...OR EARLIER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

GOODMAN

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