[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KBOX 201555
HLSBOX
ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>007-008-210000-

TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1154 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...

...NEW INFORMATION...
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL AND THE
CHANCE IT COULD TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS INCLUDES AREAS
ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.  HOWEVER...THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL BE FELT ACROSS CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...
NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.  THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...SOUTH
COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS
STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS
TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.  IF IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND
IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE THAT MOORINGS ARE SECURE.

SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
/KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM
FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT APPROXIMATELY
9 PM THIS EVENING.  THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING NEW BEDFORD...NEWPORT AND
WESTERLY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...
STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED
TIDES.

AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM
TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...
ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.

AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT
826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.

THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF
THE STORM. THE IMPACT OF ANY SURGE WILL DEPEND WHETHER THE STORM
ARRIVES DURING HIGH OR LOW TIDE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS ALREADY AFFECTING
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT 11 AM...SWELLS UP TO 8 FEET...AND
BUILDING...HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOYS JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND
LONG ISLAND.

BUILDING SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG
MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.

...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH
AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.  ISOLATED 3
INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.  FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER
FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES.

ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF
3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE
ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BOSTON MA     25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
BOSTON MA      5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

HYANNIS MA    59 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
HYANNIS MA    13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

NANTUCKET MA  72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
NANTUCKET MA  19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

PROVIDENCE RI 37 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
PROVIDENCE RI  7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 4 PM EDT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
/KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM
FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
PRODUCTS.

$$

KJC



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