[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 201547
HLSOKX
ANZ330-350-CTZ010>012-NYZ079-081-211600-

TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1147 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO
MONTAUK POINT INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON NEW
YORK AND NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...FROM LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS
IN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN.
THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO
MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT
JEFFERSON NEW YORK TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES SUFFOLK
COUNTY NEW YORK...AND MUCH OF COASTAL CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST...ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK
POINT.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

HOWEVER...A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM VERY CLOSE TO MONTAUK POINT...AND BRING
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH TO EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE
BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. SINCE THE STORM COULD IMPACT THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD PREPARE QUICKLY FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS.

SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO AROUND 11 FEET SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS LONG ISLAND
SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS
FORECAST...RAIN BANDS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM DEVIATES LEFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND
AND FAR SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. THIS WOULD CAUSE MAINLY MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH
FACING OCEAN BEACHES INTO FRIDAY.

...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY...

MONTAUK POINT...51 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
MONTAUK POINT... 9 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

NEW YORK CITY...14 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY BY 6 PM EDT...OR EARLIER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

GOODMAN


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