[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 38.2N 73.0W AT 20/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 170 MILES S OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 260 MILES SW OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED OF 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATER AND A MORE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...
CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED OVER THE LAST 6 HORUS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF
27.5N74W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
28.5N73.5W NE TO 42N68W. RADAR AT DOVER DELAWARE SHOWS OUTER
RAIN BAND ALONG THE COAST FROM NE MARYLAND TO NEW JERSEY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SHARPENING LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
NOW EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N69W TO 17N81W ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM JAMAICA TO
CUBA BETWEEN 76W-79W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 4N24W 7N39W 8N55W 11N67W
8N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS E OF 26W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE WSW THROUGH A SECOND UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI ACROSS INTO N MEXICO. BROAD UPPER HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US EXTENDS TO THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N E OF 83W TO
INLAND OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA W
COAST AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N69W
TO 17N81W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC COVERS CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE SW OF A LINE FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W INCLUDING
ALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. BERYL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN AROUND A BROAD UPPER HIGH
CENTERED N OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED S OF BERYL
NEAR 31N78W WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
28N70W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N67W TO
33N72W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N64W ALONG 28N70W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W. THE
RESULTING UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS GIVING THE
AREA ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-30N W OF 76W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA E COAST INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AT THE BASE OF
THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE REGION
COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 43W-64W. THIS IS AIDING
IN THE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
23N-35N BETWEEN 61W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE
REGION. LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-26N E OF 37W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA THUS
LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE



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