[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 19W-28W.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 21N MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN WITH
THIS WAVE.  THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N61W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 56W-62W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 21N
MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN
80W-85W.  THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 82W-85W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 9N30W 7N40W 8N50W 10N60W.
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-39W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N89W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INLAND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S
ALABAMA TO E TEXAS ALONG 28N81W 32N85W 30N94W.  A 1018 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W.  LIGHT WINDS AND
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF S OF 28N.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS N OF 26N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 26N.  EXPECT A
TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA... THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA... AND THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND S
FLORIDA.  ELSEWHERE... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MORE
CONVECTION OVER S LOUISIANA... E TEXAS... AND THE NW
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES
AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 20 KT ARE RECORDED BY BUOY 42058 N OF
COLOMBIA.  ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 72W-77W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 78W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A TINY LOW IS OVER CUBA NEAR 21N82W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN180
NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DUE TO RIDGING.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 36N46W IS PRODUCING MAINLY
ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
20W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 24N AND W OF 70W.  A LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N61W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 50W-70W.   DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 54W-57W.  A LARGE HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N27W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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