[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE JUST OFF THE COAST OF
W AFRICA...E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59/60W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 55W-59W. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N60W. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY
AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
TO THESE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS  FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN
78W-83W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND OVER PANAMA AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 19N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 7N30W 6N40W 7N50W 10N58W.
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 28W-37W...AND WITHIN AROUND 80 NM S OF THE AXIS
FROM 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH LIGHT
WINDS THROUGHOUT.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE SE U.S.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 29N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF CUBA AT 21N82W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AT 21N82W
MOVING WWD. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION WSW ACROSS
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NW AND SW PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE ARE OUTSIDE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT ARE FOUND JUST OFF
OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENZUELA
NEAR 7N62W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS MAINLY E FROM N FLORIDA TO 32N68W
AND BEYOND. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED NE OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N60W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
ALONG 60/61W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE SE U.S. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 29N-32N WEST OF 70W. A 1029
MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 36N42W IS PRODUCING
MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 15N-30N EAST OF
50W. TYPICAL PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS  ARE OVER THAT AREA.
A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 18N21W
COVERING MOST OF THE E ATLANTIC.

$$
GR




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