[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N23W 8N38W 5N47W 6N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA WITHIN
180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS E OF
30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE
UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. AN UPPER LOW IS
MOVING S OVER E TEXAS TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 29N96W WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO NE MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N W OF 86W.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR TAMPA SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM OVER S
FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO N OF 13N FROM 77W-86W. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N15N
BETWEEN 81W-84W. STRONG UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND LIMITING SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG UPPER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN WITH THE E PACIFIC ITCZ OVER S COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
THIS IS GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF 74W SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IS KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 29N W OF 77W WITH AN UPPER HIGH JUST NE
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W AND A RIDGE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FROM 70W-77W. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W 29N78W TO BEYOND 32N74W. AN ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE/SW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N
FROM 45W-70W WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N64W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 22N31W AND COVERS THE AREA
FROM 22W-45W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED
OVER THE ATLC E OF 79W. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF
AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E
CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
FORMATION.

$$
WALLACE



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