[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 13N MOVING W 20-25 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 10N-13N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE HAS
SLOWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 77W-82W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N23W 10N35W 6N46W 6N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING OFF AFRICA WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 19W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE
UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. AN UPPER LOW IS
MOVING S OVER E TEXAS APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR 30N95W WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 28N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS WSW TO INLAND OVER SE
TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 87W. THE
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SW TO OVER W CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR
SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO N OF 16N FROM 77W-86W. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. STRONG UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN
IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND LIMITING SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BUT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE E PACIFIC ITCZ OVER
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THIS IS GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N
W OF 74W SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IS KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 76W WITH AN UPPER HIGH JUST NE
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W AND A RIDGE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FROM 68W-76W. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM
22N-32N BETWEEN 70W-79W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 17N FROM 44W-68W WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
26N64W AND AN UPPER LOW...THAT IS BECOMING ELONGATED NE/SW JUST
N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N45W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE E
NEAR 23N31W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 23W-44W. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 23W TO
INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 75W. AFRICAN
DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION.

$$
WALLACE


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