[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 9N36W 5N37W 2N37W MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE
ITCZ. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST RELATED TO THIS
WAVE. THE CLOSEST MEANINGFUL ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W 15N58W 12N59W
8N59W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ON TOP OF
THIS WAVE IS FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W.

A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 11N...REACHING WESTERN
COLOMBIA BEFORE ENTERING EASTERN PANAMA ALONG 76W...MOVING WEST
15 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N
TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W ARE PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ
THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO 23N BETWEEN
92W AND 97W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N17W 12N20W 6N35W 5N39W 5N45W 8N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 16N BETWEEN THE AFRICA
COAST AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN
16W AND 21W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 TO
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N24W 7N33W 5N42W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 42W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N/33N FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EAST
TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN WEST TEXAS NEAR
SAN ANGELO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW RUNS
ALONG 94W/95W FROM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COASTAL TEXAS SQUALL LINE WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 30N93W IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
TO 29N95W TO 28N97W NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N85W
28N89W 30N91W IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W 15N58W 12N59W
8N59W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD
WESTWARD FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...CUTS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER HAITI AND DIGS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE ALONG 94W/95W COVERS THE AREA
WEST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM ANOTHER
RIDGE...ALONG 60W FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 60W TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR SURFACE WINDS ANNOUNCES EASTERLY
WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT...IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS SPREADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS
TODAY AND TOMORROW. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME
AREA IN 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 30N77W...
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N77W 29N70W 35N63W ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIXED INTO THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N75W
26N76W 26N77W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N72W. THE NUMBER
ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
NEAR 29N45W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER WITHIN 400 NM TO THE WEST...AND WITHIN 200 NM TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 17N57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF MOISTURE
AROUND THE 29N45W LOW CENTER. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 35N51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF THE ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVES WEST OF AFRICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE 29N45W LOW CENTER...FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N21W TO
21N23W.

$$
MT


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