[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 11N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  POSITION IS BASED ON LONG LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
36W-39W.

W ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 16N MOVING W 20 KT.
THIS IS A WELL-ORGANIZED WAVE THAT HAS A DISTINCTIVE V-SHAPE ON
SATELLITE AND PLENTY OF TSTM ACTIVITY...THOUGH WLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  SHOWERS AND TSTM
CHANCES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF
THE LEEWARDS BY TOMORROW.  THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE S
OF 15N.  TUE LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN PUERTO RICO.  A GALE MAY OCCUR NEAR/BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR WED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 54W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W/76W S OF 11N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 74W-78W.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 92W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.  THIS
WAVE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE BLOWUP OF TSTMS N OF 17N
THIS MORNING.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MORNING TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 92W-96W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 5N40W 10N58W 10N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 14W-18W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 52W-58W.  ALL OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS MENTIONED IN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W.
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT SELY FLOW.
CONVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS FROM 26W-29W BETWEEN 94W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N101W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W PRODUCING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER
TEXAS AND THE W GULF...TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA... SEE ABOVE.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 80W-87W.  A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 85W-87W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NW NEAR 20N90W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
80W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 10N65W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT.
EXPECT A NEW TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DOMINATING SURFACE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS 1031 HIGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N45W.  RELATIVELY LIGHT ELY FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-68W.  EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AFRICAN DUST E OF 50W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 56W/57W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 70W WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 71W-74W.  A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N45W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 38W-65W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 38W.

$$
FORMOSA



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