[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N32W 4N45W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF
13W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N TO THE EQUATOR
FROM 4W-17W...FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO 7N BETWEEN 15W-50W...AND S
OF 10N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA 56W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE COVERS THE SE US...GULF OF MEXICO...NW CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH ANCHORING THE RIDGE IN THE E GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N83W. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO OVER THE SE US. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO/TEXAS THEN
OVER THE N GULF STATES INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES TO S FLORIDA AND MOST OF THE GULF WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE N GULF COAST...MOSTLY INLAND. RETURN FLOW HAS
INCREASED THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
REGION LATE TODAY INTO TUE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF
CLEARING THE AREA BY THU. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE/PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W SW ALONG 14N75W TO COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N84W. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE PORTION S OF 14N BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N65W
ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE MUCH OF THE AREA CLEAR SKIES WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADES DOMINATING
THE AREA E OF 80W BY TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 55W-78W DIPPING S
OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N57W ALONG 24N60W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 350 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 22N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
FRONT S OF 22N TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT WERE TRAILING THE FRONT IS GIVING WAY TO THE
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SE US. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN MOST AZORES. A
STRONG TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM
15N35W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
HAD MOVED S OVER THE NE ATLC REMAINS N OF 24N W OF 28W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE
NW COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 30N10W TO JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 27N18W. THIS IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
WITHIN THE REGION AND IS BARELY IMPINGING ON THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH.

$$
WALLACE



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