[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N26W 5N42W 4N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
3W-12W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 6N ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM 20W-37W AND FROM
1N-9N BETWEEN 37W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE COVERS THE SE US...GULF OF MEXICO...NW CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH ANCHORING THE RIDGE IN THE E GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA N TO OVER THE SE US. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING
UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO/TEXAS THEN OVER THE N GULF STATES
INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES TO S FLORIDA
AND MOST OF THE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE N GULF
COAST...MOSTLY INLAND. RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY INCREASING THE
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W GULF AND WITH THE NEXT FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF REGION
LATE TODAY INTO TUE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF CLEARING THE
AREA BY THU. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE AND INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N70W SW TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT
WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE FROM 16N67W ACROSS THE N LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W MOVING INTO THE REMAINING LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER IN THE MORNING. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CLEAR
SKIES WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES DOMINATING THE AREA E OF 80W BY TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 57W-80W DIPPING S
OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION NEAR 32N60W ALONG 24N62W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS WELL TO THE E OF THE
FRONT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N56W TO 30N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE FROM OVER THE N LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ALONG 22N59W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N56W.
DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE TRAILING THE FRONT
COVERING THE AREA TO 70W PRODUCING BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED JUST N OF THE REGION BY A 1036
MB HIGH NEAR 34N35W. A STRONG TROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO
110 KT EXTENDS FROM 15N40W ALONG 18N27W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
21N16W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE NE ATLC N OF
24N W OF 28W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
OFF THE NW COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 32N10W JUST N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 28N26W. THIS IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
WITHIN THE REGION AND IS IMPINGING ON THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net