[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N2W 3N15W 1N31W 1N52W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N TO
ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 24W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 90
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE
US WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ACROSS
ALABAMA/GEORGIA GIVING THE GULF SW TO W UPPER FLOW. AT 25/0900
UTC...THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC CROSSES S
FLORIDA AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 25N80W TO A WARM
FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY N NEAR 28N87W ALONG 29N90W TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR 27N97W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND OVER THE SE US...THUS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES ENTERING THE GULF ON TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THUS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE N GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WESTERLY N OF 19N AND
EASTERLY OVER THE REMAINDER. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH
A GALE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND W PANAMA CONTINUING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANGE IS STORE AS THE TRADES BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA. NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IN STORE FOR
THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND WHEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARD THE GULF MOVES IN DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ATLC S OF 25N W OF 35W.
A DEEP LAYERED LOW WITH A STORM FORCE SURFACE LOW IS N OF THE
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 28N
FROM 53W-66W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW TO 30N68W. THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH THAT WAS IS IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS NOW N OF 32N WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W SW ALONG
27N52W THEN W ALONG 24N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W WHERE IT
CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF
27N AND OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 N
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N14W SW ALONG 22N26W
TO 16N43W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A 1022
MB HIGH LOCATED WSW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N28W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLC...THUS CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE INSIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$
WALLACE



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