[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N20W 1N28W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 3S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR E
OF 24W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE
US WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI GIVING THE GULF SW TO W UPPER FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AT COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC CROSSES
S FLORIDA AS A NEAR STATIONARY...MEANDERING FRONT ALONG 26N80W
27N89W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ARE S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SE FROM THE N/CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES ENTERING THE GULF ON SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THUS...
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WESTERLY N OF 18N AND
EASTERLY OVER THE REMAINDER. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH
A GALE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND W PANAMA CONTINUING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CHANGE IS STORE AS THE TRADES BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA. NO DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IN STORE FOR
THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND WHEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM THE GULF MOVES IN DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ATLC S OF 24N W OF 45W.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH UPPER AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N50W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N47W SW ALONG 26N60W THEN W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N79W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT E OF 65W AND WITHIN 150 N OF THE FRONT W OF 65W TO OVER
FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N17W
SW ALONG 23N30W TO 18N48W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
27N27W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER
MOST OF THE ATLC...THUS CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE INSIGNIFICANT OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net