[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W EQ30W 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 27W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO NE
MEXICO ALONG 30N80W 28N90W 24N98W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF
THE FRONT.  15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  5-10 KT SLY
FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG THE
BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG 26N100W 30N102W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS N OF 26N WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 26N.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO DIP DOWN TO S FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE S GULF S OF 25N WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
SLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE IS ALONG THE N COLOMBIA COAST.  15-20 KT TRADEWINDS
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  CLUSTERS OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  SIMILAR CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 77W-87W.  SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... NW TO W FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE SEA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MAY HAVE SHOWERS AT
THE 24 HOUR POINT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N75W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA AT 30N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF
THE FRONT.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
24N63W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 27N48W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 35W-39W.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N22W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  SW
FLOW IS E OF E OF 40W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SW AFRICA
NEAR 9N12W.

$$
FORMOSA



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