[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W EQ30W 3S35W 5S36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS BETWEEN 17W-33W
FROM 6S-3N. MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED NEAR THE
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 10W-16W FROM 4N-7N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF
GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 26N. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDS ALONG...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 31N85W TO 27N93W TO MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. THE FRONT THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE MOST ORGANIZED LINE EXTENDS FROM 28N88W TO
TALLAHASSEE. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER PREVAILS WITH S TO SW WINDS NEAR 10-15 KT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
COLDER AIR DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 15-20 KT. GFS
FORECASTS THE FRONT TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH CLEARING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN GULF TOMORROW. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY IN THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 17N85W PRODUCING VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ALLOWING ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE STREAMING QUICKLY
WESTWARD DRIVEN BY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FROM 20-30 KT.
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA AND PANAMA.
THE SWIFT EASTERLY WINDS ARE UPSLOPING THE TOPOGRAPHY OF PANAMA
AND COAST RICA BANKING THE CLOUDS UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS.
FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC W OF 52W GENERATING MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE MOSTLY S OF 26N. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE RIDGE NEAR 24N65W. FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF THE ATLANTIC W OF 52W.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W
SWWARD ALONG 21N45W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N51W. AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO THE E OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS NEAR
22N31W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N43W
27N52W. ONLY BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT S OF 32N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N37W
21N52W PRODUCING BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. A 1026 MB SFC STATIONARY HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N22W CAUSING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A SWLY JET WITH WINDS FROM 60 KT-80 KT
EXTENDS FROM 15N38W 26N22W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 26N15W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT EXTEND WITHIN 250 NM TO THE
RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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