[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N13W 1N20W 1N35W ACROSS
THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S46W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W NNE
OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S ALABAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE SURFACE
HOWEVER...A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
27N94W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S TO MEXICO NEAR 18N96W
THE TURNING SHARPLY N ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N89W
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN FT.
LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM MEXICO TO LOUISIANA
AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE N GULF COAST E OF 90W INCLUDING RATHER
COOL TEMPERATURES. REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS CLEAR SKIES WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES. THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN OVER THE N GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK GIVING THE AREA
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH THE DRIEST AIR FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXIST ACROSS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE MON/TUE MORNING AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 77W. REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N56W SW THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N62W THEN
W TO 26N80W WHERE IT PULLS UP NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS S FLORIDA.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO 30N BETWEEN 54W-74W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N46W TO 25N59W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC S OF 24N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE
TROPICS NEAR 3N44W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING ALONG 55W S OF 15N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 46W-56W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N E OF 43W WITH A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE
AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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