[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200508
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N18W 1N28W 1N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
ITCZ AXIS TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N93W NNE
OVER THE E US NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A
1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N94W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 21N95W THE TURNING SHARPLY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT N OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG
THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
E FROM THE LOW TO 27N87W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
INCLUDING RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES. REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
CLEAR SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE N GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK GIVING
THE AREA CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH THE DRIEST AIR BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MON/TUE MORNING
AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 75W. REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N57W SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N64W THEN W TO
27N72W WHERE IT PULLS UP NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 32N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 29N54W TO 24N61W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC S OF 25N BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 4N45W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
SE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 13N53W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 45W-55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N E OF 50W WITH A 1032
MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


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