[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N21W 3N36W S OF THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. SCATTERED
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA E
OF 4W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN
4W-7W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N
TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-29W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N ACROSS THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NW JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N92W TO OVER THE SE US
OVER ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST ACROSS
FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR
N GULF WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS N MEXICO/TEXAS AND OVER THE S US. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA DROPPING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OVER
THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO
LOUISIANA TO A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N95W...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. DUE
TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
ENJOYING RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY N OF 25N AS IT CROSSES THE
GULF EXCEPT SLIDING DOWN THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND OVER
THE FAR W GULF. THIS COULD GIVE THE N GULF THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W WITH THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W TO COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
THE S/CENTRAL PORTION. DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED PATCHES OF SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
POOLING OVER W PANAMA/COSTA RICA GIVING THE AREA OFF SHORE
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 11N W OF 80W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES. STRONG E TRADE WINDS ARE
BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT STILL RATHER GUSTY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN
STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N
OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG E TRADES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N54W SW ALONG 25N62W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED
E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W CURVING NE THROUGH 32N58W THEN SW TO E
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR ARE W OF THE UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH. W OF THE TROUGH IS
A POCKET OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
29N77W. REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONSISTS OF RATHER BROAD WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE HAVING LITTLE INFLUENCE IS
GENERATING ANY SHOWERS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 50W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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